Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I kind of keep in my bubble. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. The counties are also mostly small and rural. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Miller doesnt hesitate to say that he isnt happy with the current state of affairs and he doesnt know who hell vote for in the next presidential election. I think thats what the world needed. If he does not answer that issue clearly, I will not vote for him.. Jacobs, 58, a gift store manager in Ridgway, said she voted for Obama but didnt follow politics closely at the time. Bremer County, Iowa Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. And its never going to come back.. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I think its very political right now, honestly. Just like a hurricane, you can try to prepare for it the best you can, but you never know what kind of damage it is going to cause. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. Its going to affect trucking, farming, everything. He has since assessed each candidate on their moral stances, he said, rather than by party affiliation. The issues most important to Jacobs are immigration, the health care system, and socialism. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. It could be said that Ottawa County is one of the top bellwether counties in Ohio, if not the country. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. Pre-performance Lobby events. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. In 2020 the expansion also began generating $898,000 a year for the next 15 years for Lake Local Schools. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive "If. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. The way the system works now, if you get in as a young person on something small, its very hard to get out. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. We could also simply update our list of bellwether counties to reflect the new results. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Hes concerned a Biden administration would mean an end to fracking, higher gas prices, and utility bill hikes. When gas went up that time, our sales went down to zero, Zulch said. Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. Supply chain issues also have plagued the restaurant industry, not just with food such as chicken and other meats, but also supplies, Chamberlin said. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. Now, its the situation with Russias invasion of Ukraine and how that might affect the world and its economies. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. I hope.. I think it worked out without me.. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. Its just stupid, she said. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. He cares about the American people.. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I think Trump was the better president, said Beggs, who worked for the city for 45 years. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. Articles after the 2020 election examining the predictive power of previous bellwethers are found in other sources, including the Wall Street Journal and the Epoch Times. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Two states have announced recounts. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. What Should Fiscal and Social Policy in a Sustainable Economy Look Like? Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . For the first time in as long as she can remember, since becoming a registered voter 35 years ago, all three county commissioners are Republicans. They run the gamut from. Were still there right now as a bellwether county, but we dont know whether well keep it up.. We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. I am under that impression. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Westmoreland County, Virginia, is almost one third black. You have to take the lesser of two evils. . Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Teresa Shepherd, resident of the Indiana bellwether county of Vigo, in front of her daughter's house in Seelyville, Ind., on Oct. 20,. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." As Figure 1 shows, with roughly 3600 counties, the number of counties which correctly predict the elections outcome can be non-trivial even for relatively long sequence of elections when the probability of a correct prediction is exactly 50 percent, i.e., a coin flip. Thus, for some sequences of elections there are indeed, bellwether counties. . The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The City Center festival continued with Kyiv City Ballet, a Christopher Wheeldon duet and a daring work for Dayton Contemporary Dance Company. SACRAMENTO . To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. He says Democratic Gov. Peoples common sense level is cooked. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. Vance. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. The 19 bellwether counties are highlighted in red. Our roads need to be fixed. He worked in HVAC repair with the local pipefitters union and also owns a small concession business, setting up at events.
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