(Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. Mandela Barnes - Feb 1st, 2022 Re-election Bid Just the Latest Lie From Ron Johnson - A . Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes is seen as the front-runner, but he faces a number of top-tier Democratic rivals, including State Treasurer Sarah Godlewski, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson and Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry. . The poll, whose . Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Both politicians were backed by 43 percent of likely voters. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Any off-year election is going to be a referendum on Joe Biden, which is why its going to be a really difficult year for Democrats in places like Wisconsin, said former Wisconsin radio host Charlie Sykes, an early proponent of Johnson during his 2010 bid whos turned critical of the senator and the Trump-inspired GOP. Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. Nearly six years ago, national Republicans had largely written off Johnsons eventually successful re-election campaign as Morning Consult surveys showed 45 percent of Wisconsin voters approved of his job performance, 33 percent disapproved and 22 percent had no opinion. 56% of independent voters in . Instead of moving to the center, though, as he faces reelection this fall, the Wisconsin senator has . Ron Johnson Approval Rating. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (. This made him the second-most unpopular senator out of the 100 currently serving, after only McConnell; Kentucky voters disapprove of him by a 60%-33% margin. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. A 2001 industry survey conducted by ``Information Security,'' released on October 16, indicated that out of 2,100 respondents, an overwhelming 89% experienced virus, worms, or trojan breeches in the last three months. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. The American Independent is the No. January 25, 2022 at 12:01 am ET. -36. George H.W. Susan Collins (25). Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Just ask Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who for years has had the worst PARS score in the country (currently -54). The new poll found that 67% of Republicans are very excited about the election, compared to 58% of Democrats and 35% of independents. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Ron Johnson and His Wife Jane Johnson. The United States of America has 100 senators, and all are constantly under public scrutiny. All vote results include undecided voters who lean to a candidate. The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. An approval rating is a percentage determined by polling which indicates the percentage of respondents to an opinion poll who approve of a particular person or program. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Need to report an error? Democratic Lt. Gov. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Finally, the fault lines in the electorate are deeper today than they were back then. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. He has lost significant ground in the past few years with key voting groups such as women, moderates, independents and suburbanites, including voters in the once lopsided GOP stronghold of the WOW counties outside Milwaukee. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. According to the survey of about 800 registered voters, Democratic Governor Tony Evers' approval rating slid from 50% in August to 45%. Henning, the Johnson spokeswoman, said whoever the Democratic nominee is will have to run on Joe Bidens abysmal record and that voters should be wary of anyone who supports his agenda, or worse, something even more progressive.. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Have you been living under a rock? And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . 2 in PARS with a score of +33. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. All rights reserved. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Johnsons name recognition is also significantly higher today than it was back then. 2022 Senate Elections (51) Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson used his rollout to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. One reason may be that voters are more polarized in general. In that sense, Johnsons political future may depend on maximizing turnout from the partys pro-Trump base while still winning over some anti-Trump Republicans and independents. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. The survey released Wednesday found slipping approval ratings for Democratic Gov. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. Follow him on Twitter @jeisrael. House Republicans introduce bill to declare AR-15-style assault rifle US 'national Report finds right-wing radicals responsible for all extremist-related murders in 2022. Gas prices have plummeted. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. Cant fix stupid or true believers. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. and 7% for Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. 1990 FLEER BASEBALL 501-660 YOU PICK SEE SCANS .99 UNLIMITED SHIPPING HIGH GRADE. ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Chris Sununus net approval rating is +30, so he is expected to comfortably win reelection. The fact that Johnsons negatives have spiked among Democrats and liberals may not be a big deal, since these are voters very unlikely to support him anyway. Theres such a striking decline, and its a decline that has been sustained through 2020, 2021 and now into 2022. More: The fight over Ron Johnson's US Senate seat will put Wisconsin back in the national spotlight in 2022. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had not held office prior to his election to the Senate, being a CEO for a plastics and manufacturing company beforehand. Bjork, whos previously worked for Emilys List and President Barack Obamas Wisconsin campaigns, noted that running as a progressive in the state isnt impossible, pointing to the winning path charted by Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) a decade ago. An AARP Wisconsin poll released Thursday finds Republican Sen. Ron Johnson leads his Democratic opponent, Lt. Gov. Senators net approval ratings for the first three months of 2019 relative to the partisan leans* of their states. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Johnsons decline in popularity since 2019 has occurred among almost all groups. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Their four most vulnerable incumbents this fall Sens. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. But the electorate has hardened around him. So, its not a short-term fluctuation, but a strong trend, said pollster Charles Franklin, who provided the data used here. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot,6 Republicans currently lead by 2.6 percentage points (45.5 percent to 42.9 percent). ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for these calculations. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. Adding to the bad news for Johnson is that his approval rating continues to be at an all-time low with just 37% of registered voters saying they approve of him and 46% saying they disapprove. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Yes. But what they missed was that she could create a sincere connection with those working-class voters in rural areas and in Democratic-rich Dane [County] and Milwaukee.. 2023 CNBC LLC. Johnson's approval ratings have decreased in the last few years, according to polling by the Marquette Law School. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. Share: Listen Download. Johnson said it was not his "job is not to micromanage a private company" and that putting the jobs in a different state would actually "benefit Wisconsin, Oshkosh, and Oshkosh workers. Everss PARG is just +1, suggesting perceptions of him are strongly dependent on partisanship. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. Because Massachusetts is so blue, thats no big whoop in the Bay State but in reddish Florida, it denotes a talented politician with a lot of cross-party appeal. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. But what we cant be as confident about is whether its reversible.. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. (That last figure is based on a four-poll sample of 339 WOW-county voters, with a margin of error of 5 percentage points). Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. Cmon! The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. Bill Clinton 1993-2001. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. > Less popular senator: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson > Q4 2019 approval rating: 41.0% > Least popular House member: Republican Rep. Bryan Steil, 1st District Governors net approval ratings (approval ratings minus disapproval ratings) for the first three months of 2022 relative to the FiveThirtyEight partisan leans of their states. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. while Evers' approval rating remains above water. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Bush 1989-93. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. All rights reserved. More money is expected to flow into the race as the candidates barrel toward the November general election. Many conservatives see Barnes, an outspoken progressive whos called House progressive Squad member IIhan Omar of Minnesota brilliant, as the perfect foil for Johnson to caricature as extreme. At this time last month, voters preferred Republicans by 2.2 points (44.7 percent to 42.5 percent). Senator, Johnson won one of them, getting 45% versus 42% for Lasry. Similar to a senators PARS score, a governors PARG score can also help us get a better sense of which governors running for reelection in 2022 are best equipped to swim against the partisan tide of their states. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for 1978 Topps Baseball (501-726) Pick from List EX-NM at the best online prices at eBay! With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan is somewhere in the middle, with a PARG of +6. Jon Tester (+33 PARS) and Sherrod Brown (+20 PARS), who have managed to win multiple elections despite hailing from red states. On the flip side, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson has one of the worst PARS scores (-18); despite his home state of Wisconsin having an R+4 partisan lean, his net approval rating is -14 percentage points. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. We want to hear from you. Previous Morning Consult polling has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. This raises the question of whether Johnson in 2022 can replicate his 2016 vote in the WOW counties, or whether he needs to make up any erosion there in increasingly red rural Wisconsin. The question is whether or not hell focus on the winning message, whether or not people will respond, or whether those negative numbers are so baked in, he said. Democratic Gov. With Florida currently struggling with one of the highest rates of COVID-19 in the country, slightly more than half of voters (51 percent) disapprove of Governor Ron DeSantis' handling of the response to the coronavirus, while 46 percent approve, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Florida released today. Barnes was expected to have a tougher primary battle up until his top Democratic opponents dropped out late last month, clearing his path to the nomination, NBC projected. A. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. As a result, more governors than senators have PARGs at the extreme ends of the spectrum, as you can see in the table below. The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. Accordingly, the floor is 40%. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (among other news outlets) is reporting that two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has decided to run and will make his formal announcement very soon: Johnson . Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. Mandela Barnes, by five points (51% to 46%) in the state's U.S. Senate race. He welcomes comment at: drooks . Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. But a lot has changed in the last few months. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. According to the latest Morning Consult poll, which covered the first three months of 2019, Manchin had a +5 net approval rating.
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