"End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Twitter Twitter In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. First, what are bellwether counties? Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Dont simply gloss over this. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. That's 14 in a row. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. Shield icon by Freepik from flaticon.com. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. Watch Hampton City. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. 2016 Election (1135) For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Demographics (84) More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. At the presidential level, Republicans havent won Oakland County since 1992, though George W. Bush twice came very close. The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. University of New Hampshire . Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. The highest percentage being 66.1%. But its been a nail-biter in the past four presidential elections. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . They're just facts about the vote. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). From his tweet: From 1984 through 2016, spanning presidential elections, seventeen US counties in several states ad voted for the winning presidential candidate in an astounding 148 of 153 times including 100% five times for five different presidents: Advertisement - story continues below 1984 Reagan 1996 Clinton 2000 Bush 2012 Obama 2016 Trump 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. 9. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. We believe this was a mistake. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Cincinnati is kind of considered a little bit of an island off the rest of Ohio. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The matters that way on their minds are real. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. If Trump wants to win the state, he has to start with a win here and make up the rest of the margin elsewhere. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. But that's no longer the case. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Daniel Zimny-Schmitt1, Michael C. Harris2 1. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). . None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Their hopes are real. There are 391 such counties. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide.
Microtech Bounty Hunter Hellhound In Stock,
John Lewis Gift Card Expired During Covid,
Paula Yates Documentary,
Community Bible Church San Antonio Layoffs,
Articles OTHER